The macroeconomic climate
experienced by European banks throughout the 1970s and 1980s has been
of a much more volatile nature than that of the 1950s and 1960s. The
unpredictability of macroeconomic variables such as interest rates,
exchange rates, budget deficits and surpluses has resulted in a much
more uncertain environment. The degree of uncertainty and the inability
of the banks to plan for cyclical downturns was reflected in the performance
of European banks during the recessionary period of the late 1980s
and early 1990s.
After interest rates increased
in late 1988 and early 1989, Europe went into recession, and the cost
to the banking sector became apparent through extensive bad debts.
It has been argued that the main impact of this recessionary period
on the banking system was that European banking systems became driven
more by profitability than by size. By early 1994, European banks
were again operating in favourable conditions with low interest and
inflation rates. Banking has become characterized by a de-emphasis
on lending, and banks have competed aggressively to retain core deposits.
The overall impact has been that fee and commission income have become
an increasingly important part of bank earnings. The retail banking
market has also become increasingly driven by savings products, with
mortgages the principal source of loan growth. An increasing proportion
of income has been, and will continue to be, obtained from trading
activities.
The European financial
services sector as a whole has become more efficient as a result of
investment in technology, but this has also generated substantial
job losses. Bank management has become more focused on cost and profitability
rather than purely on market share and capital standards have improved,
resulting from the changed (and changing) nature of business. In addition
the role of the state in the banking sector has declined and is expected
to continue to diminish, particularly in terms of state ownership
of banks.
In addition to the above
trends, it also important to note that demarcation lines between markets,
intermediaries and lines of business have also been rapidly eroding.
The blurring of distinction between bank credit and securities, domestic
and international paper, and cash and derivatives products has helped
to foster the integration of cross-border investment. The implication
of the EU's Second Banking Directive in domestic banking legislation
has also established universal banking practice for credit institutions
within EU countries, rendering the old distinctions between different
types of credit institutions obsolete.