Name: 
 

Ch16 Forecasting


Multiple Choice
Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question.
 

 1. 
Time series methods
a.
discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future.
b.
include cause-effect relationships.
c.
are useful when historical information is not available.
d.
All of the alternatives are true.
 

 2. 
Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called
a.
periodicity.
b.
cycle.
c.
regression.
d.
trend.
 

 3. 
Seasonal components
a.
cannot be predicted.
b.
are regular repeated patterns.
c.
are long runs of observations above or below the trend line.
d.
reflect a shift in the series over time.
 

 4. 
Short-term, unanticipated, and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random variability known as
a.
uncertainty.
b.
the forecast error.
c.
the residuals.
d.
the irregular component.
 

 5. 
The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth
a.
the irregular component.
b.
wide seasonal variations.
c.
significant trend effects.
d.
long range forecasts.
 

 6. 
To select a value for a for exponential smoothing
a.
use a small a when the series varies substantially.
b.
use a large a when the series has little random variability.
c.
use any value between 0 and 1
d.
All of the alternatives are true.
 

 7. 
Causal models
a.
should avoid the use of regression analysis.
b.
attempt to explain a time series' behavior.
c.
do not use time series data.
d.
All of the alternatives are true.
 

 8. 
The trend component is easy to identify by using
a.
moving averages
b.
exponential smoothing
c.
regression analysis
d.
the Delphi approach
 

 9. 
If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component may be ignored?
a.
trend
b.
seasonal
c.
cyclical
d.
irregular
 

 10. 
Which of the following is a qualitative forecasting method?
a.
trend projection
b.
time series method
c.
smoothing method
d.
Delphi method
 



 
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