The
macroeconomic climate experienced by European banks
throughout the 1970s and 1980s has been of a much more
volatile nature than that of the 1950s and 1960s. The
unpredictability of macroeconomic variables such as
interest rates, exchange rates, budget deficits and
surpluses has resulted in a much more uncertain
environment. The degree of uncertainty and the inability
of the banks to plan for cyclical downturns was reflected
in the performance of European banks during the
recessionary period of the late 1980s and early 1990s.
After interest rates increased in late 1988 and early
1989, Europe went into recession, and the cost to the
banking sector became apparent through extensive bad
debts. It has been argued that the main impact of this
recessionary period on the banking system was that
European banking systems became driven more by
profitability than by size. By early 1994, European banks
were again operating in favourable conditions with low
interest and inflation rates. Banking has become
characterized by a de-emphasis on lending, and banks have
competed aggressively to retain core deposits. The
overall impact has been that fee and commission income
have become an increasingly important part of bank
earnings. The retail banking market has also become
increasingly driven by savings products, with mortgages
the principal source of loan growth. An increasing
proportion of income has been, and will continue to be,
obtained from trading activities.
The European financial services sector as a whole has
become more efficient as a result of investment in
technology, but this has also generated substantial job
losses. Bank management has become more focused on cost
and profitability rather than purely on market share and
capital standards have improved, resulting from the
changed (and changing) nature of business. In addition
the role of the state in the banking sector has declined
and is expected to continue to diminish, particularly in
terms of state ownership of banks.
In addition to the above trends, it also important to
note that demarcation lines between markets,
intermediaries and lines of business have also been
rapidly eroding. The blurring of distinction between bank
credit and securities, domestic and international paper,
and cash and derivatives products has helped to foster
the integration of cross-border investment. The
implication of the EU's Second Banking Directive in
domestic banking legislation has also established
universal banking practice for credit institutions within
EU countries, rendering the old distinctions between
different types of credit institutions obsolete.