A difficult decision for directors of both public and private limited
companies is to determine the appropriate level of dividend to be paid to shareholders,
and to decide whether or not to offer non-cash alternatives such as scrip dividends. From
the perspective of the theorist, rationalization of the corporate dividend decision (or in
its obverse form, the corporate savings function), provides one of the severest
difficulties for the development of a unified theory of finance. The 'irrelevance' theory,
although logically consistent within its idealized framework, does not explain observed
dividend behaviour. As a consequence, a number of partial theories such as those based on
'signalling' and 'agency' models have been developed, but empirical testing of these
generally gives disappointing results. However, empirical models of the partial adjustment
type work quite well in capturing the time series variation of dividends at both the
aggregate and individual company level. Unfortunately, since these models are essentially ad
hoc, they do not give any real advice to directors to enable them to arrive at a
theoretically justifiable assessment of the appropriate dividend level to set.
Arguments based on these models could lead, in a given instance, to
one level of dividend being preferred to all others. Such a result might come about
because of value effects relating directly to the investors' personal circumstances (for
example, personal tax); or from the dividend level being interpreted as a signal of the
directors' future intentions or degree of confidence of earnings growth. The existence of
some share price reaction on dividend announcement prompts an analysis of the evidence for
both shareholder clienteles and possible interaction of firms' dividend policies with key
activities such as internal investment.
Ian Davidson