The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds that
capital market prices fully and correctly reflect the knowledge and expectations of all
investors. This implies that any publicly available information set, say f , is compounded
into share prices in such a speed that there are no trading opportunities for investors to
generate economic profits by trading on the basis of f . Under this hypothesis, it is
futile to seek undervalued securities or to forecast market movements.
EMH assumes that securities markets are characterized by a large
number of profit driven independent individuals where new information regarding securities
arrives in a random manner. Under this setting, investors react to new information
immediately. They buy and sell the security until they feel the market price reflects
correctly the new information. In this market, the process of determining prices is a
'fair game' where there is no way of using the information available at a point in time to
earn abnormal return. In such a market share prices are right and reflect all publicly
available information regarding the value of the company.
The efficient market hypothesis has, historically, been subdivided
into three categories, each dealing with a different type of information. The first is the
weak form market efficiency hypothesis where security prices reflect all security market
information including all past prices, volumes, etc. This hypothesis holds that current
prices cannot be predicted from past price patterns. The second is the semi-strong form of
market efficiency where current share prices fully reflect not only historical information
but also all publicly available information relevant to the company's securities. The
third is the strong form of market efficiency where market prices fully reflect all public
and private information that is known to all market participants about the company.
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