Monetarism is a school of thought in which its members share the view that
fluctuations in economic activity are largely governed by fluctuations in the stock of
money. While it is broad enough to accommodate disagreements within its ranks with regard
to the extent of the influence money has on economic activity, or even the appropriate
definition of money that best satisfies the main proposition, the common factor that binds
all of the members of this school of thought is the belief that ultimately inflation is
caused by excess growth in the money supply. This latter view derives from the 'quantity
theory of money'. In its simplest form, it is asserted that a relationship exists between
the level of national income (measured in current prices) and the stock of money.
Consequently the rate of growth of national income (gross national and domestic product
(GNP and GDP), etc.) will be strongly correlated with the rate of growth of the stock of
money. If it is additionally asserted that in the long run the real value of national
income (national income adjusted for the general price level) grows at a stable rate, then
the rate of growth of money in excess of the rate of growth of real national income will
result in inflation. In other words, an increase in the money supply will at first benefit
economic activity by raising the level of income but over the long period, as real income
reverts to its historic rate of growth, the result is inflation. This view is encapsulated
in the phrase: 'inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods'.
Monetarism has gone through several incarnations. It has a long
historical pedigree that strongly influenced pre-Keynesian economic thought. The influence
of the monetarist school waned with the development of Keynesian economics. The label
'monetarism' came even later - a term that was invented in the 1960s. It was Milton
Friedman who in the 1950s restated the quantity theory as a theory of the demand for
money. Monetarism became influential in the late 1960s and the 1970s, when inflation in
the developed countries rose to double digit figures. The British monetarist experiment of
the 1980s was the closest that any economy has come to following a monetarist
macroeconomic policy. Whether the experiment was a success or not is a topic for future
historians. However, a key policy recommendation of monetarism is that low monetary growth
is a necessary condition for low inflation. Monetary targets have been developed in many
developed economies with this aim in mind. The history of monetary targeting has been
mixed, but where it has been successful, as in Germany, the result has been a stable
monetary environment and low inflation.
Kent Matthews