Real options are options which arise in real investments, that is investments
in real assets, in which there is flexibility to take decisions in the light of subsequent
information. The flexibility may be the choice of either increasing the level of output of
a production process now or waiting until later when more is known about the likely level
of demand. Real option theory is primarily concerned with valuing this flexibility and
determining the optimal timing of such investment decisions.
The freedom to wait before taking the complete investment decision
makes it more difficult to value projects. In the absence of flexibility, the expected
values of future cash flows from the investment are estimated and then valued in today's
pounds or dollars, allowing a discount for the risk or uncertainty involved. The presence
of flexibility makes the estimation of the future cash flows more problematic, and leads
us to a different approach, in which we draw an analogy with options in the financial
markets, where the investor has flexibility to choose over a period of time whether or not
to invest in a certain financial security. Established methods for valuing such options
help us value real investments with flexibility. It is clear that flexibility becomes more
valuable as uncertainty about the future increases, other things being equal. This makes
real options very different from investments without flexibility where uncertainty may
reduce value.
A major feature of real option methods is that, not only do they put
a value on flexibility, but they also tell us the optimal stage at which to exercise the
flexibility. For example, as the market price of the output of a production process falls,
it is possible to find the optimal point to stop producing. Of course, the presence of
costs to interrupting production and uncertainty over the path of future prices may make
it rational to continue producing goods even when costs exceed revenues. Likewise, it may
be rational to wait before starting to produce until revenues considerably exceed costs.
Such circumstances, in which it is economically sensible to produce even when costs exceed
revenues or, in different cases, not to produce when revenues exceed costs, is a typical
and important feature (called hysteresis) of many real option situations.
C.G.C. Pitts